Ugly Times

Let me start out by saying that I don't think that all Republicans are racist lunatics. Both sides of the political spectrum get nutty when you stray too far from center. However, McCain and Palin's new "All Negative, All The Time" strategy has really started to draw those fringe folks that might have had the good sense to keep to themselves earlier in the race.

Just in the last 36 hours:

• At a rally, John McCain asks the crowd, "Who is the real Barack Obama?". The first and loudest responder can be heard shouting, "TERRORIST!"
  
  
• The Washington Post reports that "Palin's routine attacks on the media have begun to spill into ugliness. In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric's questions for her "less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media." At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, 'Sit down, boy.'"
  
  
• Palin whips a crowd into a frenzy, talking about Bill Ayers, former member of the Weather Underground. In the middle of her speech, one man shouts, "Kill him!"
  
  
• This morning, Palin accused Obama of criticizing the troops (untrue, of course) and soon after, someone in the crowd shouts, "Treason!"

Stay classy, San Diego. Remember, this was the man who promised a respectful campaign.

Again, it's too early to tell if McCain's new last-ditch scorched Earth strategy will work or not. Keep an eye on the daily tracking polls over the next week or so. I think we'll see a tightening.

Desperate Empty Embarrassment

Joe Klein, author and Time Magazine columnist continues his fascinating transformation from McCain supporter to McCain critic.

His latest entry is powerful.

As I said, I'm of two minds about this. I don't want to give currency to this sewage, so it will remain below the fold. And I'll try to devote the lion's share of my time to the issues--the war, the economic crisis, the fraying health insurance system, the environment--that should define this campaign. But what a desperate empty embarrassment the McCain campaign has become.

Negativity!

The political news today is all about McCain's terrible poll position (hey, great arcade game...). With only 4 weeks left, McCain has an enormous hill to climb if he is to win this election. The number one issue with voters today is the economy, and Obama holds a significant advantage in the public's mind on this issue.

As McCain sees it, he has only one choice. Go all negative, all the time. His surrogates (and even his vice presidential candidate) have come right out and said it. They are planning to launch serious character attacks until the election.

The question is, will these Rove-style politics still work? You can hardly blame them. They worked in both 2000 and 2004. It's a little surprising to previous McCain fans, like myself. Several months back, Jon Stewart mentioned that a race between Obama and McCain would probably be "a tonic to this country". He was assuming that it would be extra civil. Of course, losing can do things to your psyche.

Lately on the stump, Palin has been saying that Obama "pals around with terrorists". Ah, that's class.

Interesting link round-up:

• John "seething rage" McCain suggests that Barack "no drama" Obama gets angry and touchy when questioned on credentials or policy. This statement is outrageous for a few reasons, but primarily because Obama has been calm and unruffled throughout this entire campaign, while McCain has been perpetually ready to pop a vein. Talking Points Memo uses the Des Moines Register Editorial Board interview as evidence that McCain is the touchy one, and our very own Rekha Basu chimes in as well.
  Late Update: Andrew Sullivan cuts through the hypocrisy on this issue.
  
  
• Mike Murphy, a frank and honest Republican operative seen frequently on Meet The Press laments the new negative McCain turn and argues that McCain should go positive.
  
  
• FiveThirtyEight.com today has a very interesting break-down of how very slight improvements in black voter participation can make a huge difference in Georgia.
  

Daily Tracking

Not a good sign for McCain. Gallup's Daily Tracking poll (released daily around noon) indicates that Obama is holding, and maybe even increasing his lead. These numbers are significant because they are beginning to take the Biden/Palin debate into account.

The other daily tracking polls show much the same:

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%
Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

Obama's Steady Climb

Yesterday's state-by-state polls continue to indicate that Obama is continuing his "tortoise and the hare"-like slow and steady climb. FiveThirtyEight.com shows good news in all of yesterday's state-level polls with the exception of Minnesota.

The idea that Minnesota would go McCain is a little surprising, but there are two points to consider here. One, McCain has been outspending Obama in Minnesota in terms of ad buys. Two, This is a SurveyUSA poll. They are frequently the "outliers", and their numbers in the primaries weren't always so dead on. Nonetheless, it's interesting to see Iowa consistently put into the "strong Obama" category and Minnesota put into the "lean Obama" category time and time again.

Now it gets interesting. Over the next couple of days, the poll numbers will start to reflect the impact of the veep debate, if there is any impact.

The Veep Debate

Phew...the veep debate is over. My very disorganized and truncated thoughts:

Ifill was neutered. Palin was better than expected, but still much too folksy. She devoted perhaps 1-2 sentences in each response to acknowledging the question put to her, and then veered off into factually dubious Obama attacks. Biden started weak and ended strong. His moment of emotion over his hospitalized children was authentic and very powerful. Palin started strong, but her collection of talking points and anecdotes grew thin quickly. Is it elitist to want a veep that speaks in proper English? Has their ever been a veep that says, "you betcha" or "gonna"? Not in their kitchen, but on a national debate? Oh, and Palin seemed to indicate that she thinks that the veep should have MORE power. I'm sure after eight years of Cheney that may not be what America's looking for.

I had a blast reading the journalists who liveblogged during the debate. Here are some great liveblogs:

• Marc Ambinder, of the Atlantic: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3
• Josh Marshall, Talking Points Memo: Part 1, Part 2
• Andrew Sullivan, of the Atlantic

The snap polls I've seen so far are all giving it to Biden. CBS gives it to Biden, 46% to 21%. CNN's poll gives it to Biden, 51% to 36%. Perhaps most troubling to the McCain camp is that only 46% of CNN's poll subjects thought Sarah Palin was qualified to be president. That's only a 4% gain from before the debate. That's not going to cut it.

I think that Palin did stop the bleeding, however...and McCain's got to be hoping that the tidal wave of criticism he's been facing over his drastically unqualified VP pick may subside for a while.

Ok, I Give Up.

I give up. I've gone silent for quite a while now because I'm absolutely consumed with politics. I didn't want this to be a political blog, and I'm thinking about almost nothing else until after the election, so I decided to shut up.

But I can't shut up anymore. Politics is simply too much of what I care about and too much a part of who I am. So, until the election, I will begin posting my own political commentary, but even more frequently I will be posting the best articles, poll analysis, and political commentary that I've come across. This election cycle seems to be the cycle where the blogosphere has really come into it's own. Not just a place for ranting anymore, blogs are often doing the serious and important journalism that the traditional media doesn't do.

So, if you hate politics or if they bore you, check in again on November 5th. Actually, better make it November 6th. I will likely spend the 5th celebrating or crying.

Today's recommended reads:

• Credit Where It's Due - a great posting from someone reflecting on how Obama has managed to strike the right tone over and over again, even as Democrats try to push him to be "angrier". Angry is just not part of who Obama is, and I think Obama understands that slow and steady wins the race.
  
  Excerpt:

  When you think about it, it's astounding. A first term African-American Senator with an Arabic name who is descended from and still related to Muslims in the post-9/11 era is on the verge of being elected President of the United States. If you submitted this script to Hollywood, they'd laugh you off the lot.

• McCain is pulling out of Michigan. One look at the trend lines for Michigan make it clear that he is losing ground there quickly. This is horrible news for McCain supporters. There are very few scenarios in which McCain can win the presidency and lose Michigan.
  
  
• Of course, tonight's big political news is the V.P. debate. This debate is 100% about Palin. Nobody will care about Biden at all. In fact, I heard someone say, "If people are talking about Biden after the debate tonight, then he messed up big." After Palin's cringe-worthy interviews with Katie Couric over the last week, the country is going to be watching to see if she can redeem herself. This is actually a better format for her than the Couric interviews. There will be fewer follow-up questions (where she really falls apart) and the questions will be more predictable. I don't think Sarah Palin is stupid, I think she just has an astonishing lack of knowledge about the issues our country faces. Until tonight's debate, enjoy her greatest hits.
  
  
• Time magazine's Joe Klein, a long supporter of McCain until recent months has a new column out today called "Anger vs. Steadiness in the Crisis" in which he contrasts the two temperaments of Obama and McCain.
  
  Excerpt:
  

  A few hours before the house of Representatives smacked down the financial-bailout package, I watched John McCain — eyes flashing, jaw clenched, oozing sarcasm and disdain — on the attack in Ohio: "Senator Obama took a very different approach to the crisis our country faced. At first he didn't want to get involved. Then he was 'monitoring the situation.' That's not leadership; that's watching from the sidelines." And I thought of Karl Rove. Back in 2003, at the height of Howard Dean mania, Rove was skeptical about Dean's staying power as a candidate: "When was the last time Americans elected an angry President?"